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"Thoughts" are comments and shared musings from the tmg team; if you would like to discuss any topics please let us know
The surprise of last night’s election results is that the Liberal Democrats (LD) didn’t do better. Whilst they still get to perform the king maker roll they didn’t live up to expectations.
The tmg Seat Predictor that uses crowd sourced betting data predicted the LD would receive 28.7% of the vote traditional opinion polling put them on 26%. This compares with the actual results that gives them 22.9% of the vote. So just about everybody got it wrong with our crowd sourced data and opinion polling over estimating by 20% and 12% respectively.
The big surge in the LD’s popularity came with the television debate which Nick Clegg by all accounts ‘won.’ Suddenly there was a surge in interest and the indicators were that this was the ascendency of a competitive threat to the big 2 of British politics. You can review the historical and the popularity surge after the first debate with our Seat predictor (www.tmg.co.uk/election2010.cfm).
The TV debate was compared with top music talent show X-Factor and considered a great success for the popularisation of politics but I wonder whether Nick was the Jedward act.
Jedward were the X-Factor surprise package, initially perceived as arrogant upstarts their energy, enthusiasm and willingness to perform oblivious of their lack of talent meant that they survived for far longer than they should. Whilst the British public rewarded them for their energy by repeatedly voting for them and pushing out more talented acts it finally got to a point where they could go no further. The same energy and enthusiasm could not carry poor singing and a lack of talent any further. As most people remarked at the time they will make great Children’s TV presenters but definitely not pop stars.
The LD are the Jedward of British politics they have a charismatic leader with enthusiasm, energy and passion. In Vince Cable they have the public’s popular choice to run the economy. But they are not enough as they lack the basic fundamental package which is a consistent ideology that runs through the party. The TV gave Nick Clegg an audience and he took his chance but when it came to the ballot box they realised that the party he serves weren’t a credible choice. The LD were the Jedward act, easy to follow but hard to vote for at the end. Let's see what happens with Nick Clegg in the support act to David Cameron, but if it doesn't work out there there is always a role for him in TV punditry.
Published on: May 7, 2010 by Wyndham Lewis