Election 2010 Seat Predictor

Can we predict the Election outcome?

Our polling predictor will collect and analyse people's 'Social Media' habits during the election campaign. Our poll is based on what people are actually doing, rather than what they think or say they will do, to pollsters.

Our polling predictor will collect and analyse Parliamentary seats, based on party win expectancy and relate that to people betting patterns in each seat area, in real time.

You can now also look at historical information using the back in time tool below.

We think our polling predictor will more accurately predict the election outcome than the Pollsters...

See our election prediction seat breakdown, analysis and a seat by seat report of how we believe the election be called.

Final social prediction.

This information was taken @ 2300 on 5th May 2010

Vote prediction

This is the current prediction for the vote share in the general election.

Real time swing

How does this prediction compare 24 hours previous and 3 days previous?

Seat prediction

Using social media and crowdsourcing various betting patterns, the current outcome of the election regarding seats breakdown is currently:

But what about the polls?

With the polls showing very unexpected voting patterns, these might additionally need to be taken into account. Therefore we will start mapping the 'Poll of Polls' from the BBC and project this into a seat share, based on the UNS model. We will apply this to our pure crowd sourced model.

This will allow us to track the difference between the two models and keep the history of both.

Latest 'Poll of polls' taken on 30 August 2010 @ 18:15: Conservative - 41% Labour - 37% Lib Dems - 14%

Fancy looking back in time?

Now we have collected many, many thousands of pieces of information; we can offer a look back at the poll predictions and seat predictions. You can therefore see the changes that have occurred over time since the tool was started.

Clever polling by the intelligent digital people at tmg